Nigeria and Jobs

Nigeria is currently Sub-Sahara African’s second-largest overall economy behind South Africa. However ,it is estimated that Nigeria’s GDP will be greater than South African by 2011($308bn in Nigeria vs the IMF’s estimate of $262bn for South African) and rise to in excess of $500bn by 2014 and $1,000bn by 2020,comfortably achieving Nigeria’s Vision 2020  goal of being in the top-20 largest global economies by 2020.With a population in excess of 150mn today and an estimated population of more than 200mn by 2020 it would imply that Nigeria’s GDP per capita will be in excess of $6,000 by 2020,representing a significant economic opportunity.
There are growing signals that the global economy is beginning to pull out of the worst recession in the post World War II era. The IMF recently raised its World Economic Outlook projections(July 2009) by 0.6% to 2.5% in 2010.The rationale being that financial conditions have improved more than expected, owing mainly to public intervention, and the fact that recent data suggest that the rate of decline in economic activity is moderating, although to varying degrees among regions. It also highlighted the relative resistance of emerging and developing economies to advanced economies. The IMF estimates that emerging and developing economies will have real GDP growth of 4.7% in 2010(Sub-Sahara African [SSA]4.1%) vs advanced economy growth of 0.6%.
In the past decade, emerging, and developing economies’ contribution to global GDP has risen 10% from 20% in 1998 to 30% in 2008.Using the IMF’s latest estimates(July 2009) this is projected to rise to 37% by 2014 and Nigeria estimate by could almost harmonise by 2020,and that emerging and developing economies by 2025.
Until the turn of the 21st century. Africa’s contribution to world GDP remained stubbornly below 2%.However, post the debt forgiveness in 2005 and against the backdrop of a booming commodity cycle, Africa’s contribution to world GDP has risen steadily. By 2008,the IMF estimates that Africa accounted for 2.5% of global GDP vs 1.8% in 1998.Over the next five years, it is estimated that this figure will rise to 3.4% and according to Nigeria’s estimates could be as high as 5.0% by 2020.
Within Africa, Nigeria is SSA’s second-largest overall economy behind South Africa. Nigeria estimate that its norminal GDP will be $197bn in 2009 from $215bn in 2008.It is estimated that Nigeria’s GDP will be greater than South Africa by 2011($308bn in Nigeria vs the IMF’s estimate of $262bn for South Africa) rising to in excess of $500bn by 2014.Extrapolating these figures out, it is believed that Nigeria could have a GDP in excess of $1,000bn by 2020 and comfortably achieve its goal of being in the top-20 largest global economies by 2020.
As a share of Africa’s overall GDP, it is believed that Nigeria will rise from approximately 14% as at 2008 to 22% by 2020.Despite having the second-largest GDP in Africa, Nigeria’s GDP per capita remains relatively low at $1,364 in 2008.This is largely a factor of its significant population, estimated to be in excess of 155mn, which equates to nearly one in five Sub-Sahara Africans living in Nigeria. Looking at the Next Eleven (N11 is a list of 11 countries that Goldman Sachs identified that could potentially have a BRIC like[Brazil, Russia, India and China] impart in rivaling theG7) it can be seen that in 2008 Nigeria had a similar population as Bangladesh and a similar GDP per capita as Vietnam and Pakistan.
By 2020,it is estimated that Nigeria will have a GDP per capita in excess of $6,000 and a population of more than 200mn.This would imply that its GDP per capita would be similar to Egypt (estimated $7,325) and greater than Indonesia (estimated $4,485),the Philippines(estimated $2,947),Vietnam(estimated $2,701) and Pakistan(estimated $2,402).
Fixed Income Portfolio: Nigeria’s $30mn fixed income portfolio, including 40% of three-year bonds, 40% of five-year bonds and 20% of 10-year bonds, edged up 7.4% and 5.3% in naira and dollar terms over the period. This reflects the increasingly depressed yield curve for FGN bonds in the same timeframe, especially in the case of long-dated maturities. However, the latest CBN measures to improve liquidity conditions could lead to a reversal in the flight to safety that has distorted this yields; accordingly, we believe it has become too risky to invest in FGN bonds throughout the rest of the year. The portfolio will be shifted to existing state bonds (Lagos State-series 1; Kwara State and Imo State),and will rebalance the latter when other states and corporates start to offer debt securities.
Equity Portfolio: Nigeria top10 equity portfolio has outperformed the market by 77% YtD and has provided the strongest alpha in Nigeria’s overall theoretical portfolio. Despite the significant market volatility and it bearish outlook in IQ(estimated 40% decline vs actual 37%),the equity market has provided our greatest absolute portfolio return, representing 78% and 100% of the absolute positive performance in naira and dollars. As Nigeria enters the final quarter of 2009,it is believed that the CBN’s impending announcements and financial clarity of the banking sector will provide a significant catalyst to the sector and the market. Nigeria has therefore gone significantly overweight financials vs non-financials within her portfolio for the first time in 2009 and has raised her bank exposure to 70% of her equity portfolio.
Job Opportunities: With the overview there is likelihood of a better economy. You don’t only get jobs to work on the internet alone but you can also get jobs via the internet. This has been a brilliant trend for those who have been in the wave of internet platform.
For instance, industries like infrastructure, travel and logistics, manufacturing, health care, and retail banking-make up more than half of the global economy. And all these sectors proffer jobs on the internet. Opportunities are flowing on the internet like an ocean, and you are not exempted to get your own better job!